by In 2021, the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 issued by the State Council and the work plan for “waste free city” construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period jointly issued by 18 departments such as the Ministry of ecological environment give instructions for vigorously developing precast buildings, which plays a good qualitative role in the development of precast buildings in the new period.
It can be seen that with the continuous development of the policy side in recent years, the heat of precast buildings has gradually increased.
By analyzing the current scale of domestic precast buildings, we can see that this industry will continue to maintain a high heat development trend in the future.
I.
policy situation: the policy side continues to make efforts.
The “14th five year plan” in various places frequently mentions that compared with Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, China’s construction industrialization started late and the foundation is relatively weak.
At the same time, due to the influence of traditional construction mode, the proportion of precast buildings in China is relatively low, and the market recognition needs to be improved.
From the perspective of energy dual control and dual carbon goals, it is very important to realize the green transformation of the construction industry.
Modular, customized, efficient, green and other advantages make the precast building mode gradually favored by our government.
In late October 2021, the central government intensively issued the heavyweight documents “opinions on promoting green development of urban and rural construction” and “notice on the action plan of carbon peak before 2030”, emphasizing the vigorous development of precast buildings and helping the action of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the construction field.
At the same time, many governments clearly listed the proportion of precast buildings in new buildings in the 14th five year plan, with the goal of 30% – 40%.
For example, the Zhejiang provincial government stipulated that precast buildings should account for more than 35% of new buildings in the 14th five year plan; Foshan municipal government proposes that the proportion of newly-built precast buildings in the city will reach 25% in 2021, and the proportion will reach more than 35% by the end of 2025.
The overweight layout of local governments in the field of precast buildings has stimulated the prosperity of the industry to a certain extent.
It can be seen that with the continuous development of national and local government support policies in the field of precast buildings, the growth space of precast buildings is expected to be further expanded, which is also conducive to the overall transformation and upgrading of the construction industry.
II.
Market situation: the effect is remarkable in economically developed areas, and the growth space of steel structure buildings is relatively large (I) the market scale is expanding, and the effect of developed city circle is remarkable.
After the policy promotion in recent years, the market scale of precast buildings is expanding, and the growth rate is also significantly improved.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, from a national perspective, the newly started precast building area in 2020 will reach 630 million m2, an increase of 50% compared with 2019, accounting for more than 20% of the new building area in the whole year for the first time.
From the regional perspective, the regional distribution of precast buildings in China shows obvious differences, especially the unbalanced development between the East and the West.
The popularity of precast buildings in the urban circle in the developed areas in the East and south is relatively high.
For example, the newly started precast buildings in key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta economic zone and the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Economic Zone account for 54.6% of the country, while those in other areas are relatively low.
Figure 1: new construction area of precast buildings in China from 2016 to 2020 unit: 100 million square meters,% source: Official Website of housing and Urban Rural Development Commission.
Taking Shanghai as an example, as the core city of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai has made remarkable achievements in vigorously promoting the capacity upgrading of the construction industry.
According to official data, in 2020, the proportion of newly constructed precast buildings in Shanghai was as high as 91.70%, leading other cities in China (such as Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hunan Province and Hainan Province, with a growth rate of more than 30%, but no more than 45%).
Why does Shanghai Excel in the development of precast buildings? After our analysis, we come to the main reasons for the remarkable achievements of precast buildings in this area: 1 The degree of responsiveness to the policy.
Economically developed regions, especially East China, have been active in responding to national policies and formulated more detailed and demanding plan objectives.
In response to the call of national policies, Shanghai has formulated the 2020 planning goal, which requires the city to achieve a single prefabrication rate of more than 40% or an assembly rate of more than 60% of the city’s precast buildings by 2020.
At the same time, the attention of the local government leadership has also effectively promoted the progress of the development of precast buildings in Shanghai.
The vice mayor in charge of Shanghai convened relevant units to establish the “Shanghai Joint Conference on green building development” to promote the implementation of relevant policies and make a series of coordination work to help the industry develop better.
The implementation of effective supervision by the superior government will have a profound impact on the local market.
2.
Supply degree of local capacity.
The capacity of precast concrete construction in Shanghai is relatively high.
According to the data disclosed by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, by the end of 2020, 143 precast concrete component manufacturers and 190 flow production lines had been registered locally in Shanghai, with an actual annual production capacity of about 6.14 million m3, which ranked among the top 10 in the supply of provinces and cities in China.
According to our analysis, the supply of precast components in Shanghai is guaranteed, the demand can be met, and a complete industrial chain can be formed locally, which positively encourages the development of precast construction industry.
3.
Implementation degree of quality supervision.
In addition to policy support and capacity guarantee, Shanghai attaches particular importance to ensuring the quality of precast buildings.
The specific approach is to improve the quality supervision system by issuing relevant rules and regulations, and actively adopt the mode of combining administrative supervision with industry self-discipline to promote the self-discipline management of construction enterprises in the industry and maintain a fair and orderly competitive environment in the market..
